Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc is a favorite saying of my medical director.

The Latin phrase translates to “after this; therefore because of this.” Many illogical arguments are made that wrongly attribute cause and effect.

Another way to understand the phrase is that something happens before an occurrence. Thus “something” must be the cause of the occurrence. For example, the ambulance worked fine before we bought diesel. Just after we refilled the tank the engine stalled and we concluded the cause was the diesel that was just purchased.

Many patient complaints are be a variation of Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc. A patient complains of “heart burn” after eating a spicy meal. A careful EMS assessment may reveal signs and symptoms of an acute myocardial infarction (heart attack) that are unrelated to the patient’s consumption of a spicy meal. Our training in assessment helps us determine cause.

Yesterday I wrote about the reduction in motor vehicle fatalities in Wisconsin that is being attributed to motorists driving less miles because of high gas prices. Now that gas prices are lower will we respond to more motor vehicle collisions and fatalities? It remains to be seen. Or is this an example of Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc. I also wrote about the decrease in AMI hospitalization after a smoke-free ordinance. In that study researchers conducted statistical analysis and compared the study area to other areas without the ordinance to see if the smoke-free ordinance had a significant effect. It did.

As your organization implements e-learning programs be wary of applying Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc. Many factors influence patient assessment and clinical care. Attributing all consequences, positive or negative to a single factor (i.e. e-learning) is difficult and often not reflective of the whole picture.

Related posts:

1. Follow-up to Post Hoc, Ergo Proctor Hoc
2. Public Policy and Macro Economic Trends Impact EMS
3. CE Lesson Study Guides and Quiz Questions: Project Completed

Tags: Medical Director, Motor Vehicle Collision, Research, Smoke-free, Statistics

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 4th, 2009 at 10:00 am and is filed under Tools, Reviews, & Other Neat Stuff. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.